“Sell in May and Go Away” is one of the most widely used maxims on Wall Street. There is no shortage of financial media coverage on this topic as the calendar turns to May. However, this phrase may be more rhyme than reason, as stocks tend to trade higher during this period (especially more recently), subject to potentially elevated volatility. Of course, seasonality is one factor that could influence markets, but the economy and monetary policy are much bigger factors. With the Federal Reserve (Fed) pointing to higher-for-longer monetary policy last week (before Friday’s softer jobs report), we also explore how stocks perform during prolonged Fed pause periods.
Last week was a pivotal one for markets, with the S&P 500 coming off a 3% weekly decline the week before. In terms of economic data, we got our first look at first quarter gross domestic product (GDP) as well as the March reading of the Federal Reserve’s (Fed) favorite inflation measure — the core PCE deflator. If that wasn’t enough to digest, over 150 S&P 500 companies reported quarterly earnings last week, including the first batch of big tech names. Stocks passed the test, with the S&P 500 up 2.7% for the week, recapturing most of the prior week’s losses despite a mixed GDP report and a double-digit decline in shares of social media giant Meta (META) on April 25, after its results. Here we recap the week’s events and check in on sentiment.
Volatility has come back into the market as the narrative shifted toward a higher-for-longer monetary policy backdrop. Signs of sticky inflation and a resilient economy, including a strong labor market, have underpinned the change in expectations. Yields have reacted by rerating significantly higher this month, while stocks have pulled back from overbought conditions. Technical damage is beginning to mount on the S&P 500, but its longer-term uptrend remains intact. The U.S. dollar has followed yields higher, creating headwinds for U.S. multinationals and currency stability headaches for other central banks.
As the first quarter earnings season kicked off on April 12, expectations for the energy sector were decidedly negative. That low bar has tempted analysts to forecast a series of positive surprises as recent data releases for both the U.S. and China suggest a stronger economic underpinning, and the manufacturing sector appears to have bottomed in both countries. Oil demand — and prices — typically follow rising manufacturing and factory output, while rising consumer sentiment normally portends an increase in air travel, which also requires higher oil allocations.
First quarter earnings season kicks off this week with several big banks reporting this Friday, including sector bellwether JPMorgan Chase (JPM). This quarter will seem quite similar to the fourth in terms of growth and drivers, with mega cap technology leading the way. But importantly, the point when the “493” will start contributing to overall profits is drawing closer (the 493 refers to the S&P 500 minus the seven mega cap technology stocks). Here we preview first quarter earnings season, which will benefit from an improving economic environment and continued strength in technology.
The initial public offering (IPO) market allows institutional investors to incorporate the macroeconomic landscape with individual corporate earnings data — and future earnings forecasts — to ascertain a share price that will hold up to analyst and media scrutiny coupled with overall market dynamics. However, the IPO market has increasingly included allocations for a retail tranche designed to include clients of brokerage firms that receive shares during the issuance stage of the IPO process. So-called “friends” of the company going public also receive shares via Directed Share Programs (DSPs), but this typically lowers the amount of shares that are available to retail clients. For retail clients, the IPO market is far from a level playing field. The IPO process awards the largest portion of new shares to the institutional market by a wide margin. Here we provide an update on recent IPO activity, performance, and discuss why IPO activity matters for markets.
The difference between strategic and tactical investment time horizons can be likened to the ebb and flow of tidal patterns in oceans. Strategic investing mirrors the steady rise and fall of the tides, focusing on long-term goals and expectations more stable akin to the predictable rhythm of oceans. On the other hand, investing in tactical time horizons resembles the dynamic nature of changing tides, responding to short-term market conditions like unpredictable surges and waves in the sea. Here we compare and contrast these two distinct processes and recap our recent strategic asset allocation change.
It seems like we just can’t stop talking about central banks. And this week will be no different, with at least 15 central bank meetings planned, some more important than others, of course. While the Federal Reserve (Fed) meeting will likely take top billing in the financial media, it’s the Bank of Japan (BOJ) meeting on Tuesday that could be the real game changer. With inflationary pressures still above target in Japan, the BOJ may finally be ready to take interest rates out of negative territory for the first time since 2016. If true, the era of free money will finally be over, which could have an impact on U.S. markets.
Bullion broke new ground last week after rallying to a record high. Growing investor confidence for a Federal Reserve (Fed) rate cut by this summer dragged down yields and the dollar, creating a tailwind for gold. The breakout above key resistance at $2,075 was also a major technical development, confirmed by bullish momentum that suggests the rally could continue. Global central bank demand has been another key catalyst and has shown no sign of slowing down, while a rebound in demand from gold-related exchange-traded funds (ETFs) could provide additional support for the yellow metal.
Fourth quarter earnings season is winding down with only about a dozen companies in the S&P 500 left to report. After a slow start mired by messy bank results early on, corporate America picked up the pace and ended up delivering results well ahead of expectations. The “Super Six” was part of the story — the Magnificent Seven minus Tesla (TSLA) — but resilient profit margins are also noteworthy. Here we review fourth quarter earnings season and share some thoughts on the earnings outlook for 2024.
As the Federal Reserve (Fed) continues with its Quantitative Tightening (QT) program, questions abound regarding the Treasury Department’s expanding funding needs. The QT program is designed to reduce the Fed’s balance sheet — now $7.7 trillion down from $9 trillion — after Treasury notes (mostly) were bought after economic concerns intensified during the COVID-19-related pandemic. Households and, perhaps surprisingly, foreign investors have been buyers recently, and with the amount of Treasury supply coming to market, both will need to keep buying.
When we wrote the annual outlook last November, the data was mixed. Some metrics hinted at emerging cracks in the economy while others suggested the growth trajectory in capital markets and the economy had legs. So, the variety of the data produced the narrative that business activity in the New Year would grow on an annual basis but experience some bumps in the first half of the year. Now, enter the revisions.
